earendil31: (serious)
"SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea said Friday it is ditching a nonaggression pact and all other peace agreements with South Korea, escalating tensions between the wartime rivals in a move seen as a possible prelude to an armed provocation."
taken from this story
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090130/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_tension_6

Lets break it down, shall we?

What the North is doing:  People call this a "rogue state."  In the sense that the DPRK can more or less do what it feels like most of the time, they are correct.  In this instance, there are three goals to this current round of brinksmanship. 

Goal 1) Test President Obama.  Right now there are still thousands of US troops more or less between the North and South.  That means anything the North does to provoke armed conflict will absolutely involve us.  Given that, the North wants to see how the new President will react to something more than the usual bluster.

Goal 2) Punish the South Korean President.  ROK President Lee has taken a very hard line against the North, reversing a number of his predecessor's so called "sunshine" policies, such as unconditional food aid.  By upping the scare level to bright fuscha, the North may be able to actually nudge the politics in South Korea back towards more pro-aid/engagement groups.

Goal 3) Test China.  When the DPRK tested that nuke two years ago, Hu Jintao made it very apparent that he was in no mood for the usual games by sending a personal assistant to slap Kim Jong Il.  When this happens, you can mark an outer boundary of behavior beyond which the DPRK will not move.

In any event, there won't be a war....but it might get interesting off the coasts for a while.

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earendil31

December 2010

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